Whether the Iowa Caucus mess is due to shadowy malfeasance or par-for-the-course incompetence, it kinda corners the Dems into a Bernie or bust situation. They cannot win without his supporters. Period, full-stop. They have to have his enthusiasm, his youth vote and his GOTV infrastructure, which has been active for nearly five years.
But if he isn’t the nominee? Their anger regarding the “rigged system” of the 2016 campaign will pale in comparison to the seeds of rage and disillusionment that’s being fertilized and watered right now in Iowa.
Again, the actual facts re: the APP FAIL are irrelevant … Mayor Pete, Biden establishmentarians and their perceived fixers in the DNC are all in the matrix of blame currently swirling around this controversy. If anyone other than Bernie eventually gets the nod, it will be largely seen as a fix. And the big mouths of Hillary and Kerry have only heightened that fear
That means, IMHO, that the party almost cannot afford for Bernie to NOT be the nominee. Yes, I heard Bernie supporters say last night that they’d support any Dem nominee … but I don’t buy it … particularly after a second Iowa Caucus snafu for their candidate.
I also remain skeptical re: Bernie v. Trump. The attacks and rat-fucking and micro-targeting and fear of Godless socialism that’s coming will be like nothing we’ve seen. Well, almost … because Trump will run a steroidal mash-up of Nixon’s ’72 campaign against McGovern and Reagan’s ’84 run against Mondale … which, as far as Trump’s team is concerned, fits perfectly as the follow-up to his mash-up of Nixon ’68/Reagan ’80, which is what he ran in 2016 (he even stole the MAGA catch-phrase from St. Ronnie).
To beat that and Trump’s easy Red State road through the Electoral College, the Dems need huge turnout. Huge. They cannot afford to lose Bernie’s people. But Bernie also matches Trump’s preferred campaign trajectory. They’re stuck.
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